寶島暗藏戰火 僅次於北韓
Taiwan is listed second out of five places where World War III could break out in 2018.
台灣名列全球5個最有可能在2018年爆發第三次世界大戰的地方，排名第二。
Robert Farley, a Senior Lecturer at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky, contributed to the National Interest magazine an article titled “5 Places World War III Could Start in 2018”.
美國肯塔基大學佩特森外交與國際商業學院資深講師法利在《國家利益》雜誌上發表了「2018年最有可能爆發第三次世界大戰的5個地方」一文。
contribute(v.)投稿
He listed five regions where greater conflict may arise next year: North Korea is at the top of the list and Taiwan ranks second, followed by Ukraine, NATO’s Southern Plank and the Gulf.
他指出有五個地區明年可能會發生更大的衝突：其中北韓排名第一，第二名是台灣，接著依序是烏克蘭、北大西洋公約組織的南方盟國，以及波斯灣地區。
Farley points out that North Korea’s success in developing ballistic missiles, coupled with the diplomatic inexperience of the Trump administration, has made the DPRK the most serious foreign policy crisis facing the world today.
法利指出，北韓發展核武成功，加上川普政府在外交上缺乏經驗，使得北韓成為當今世界所面臨最嚴重的外交危機。
ballistic missiles彈道飛彈coupled with~=combined with加上
“North Korea and the United States both have substantial incentives to pre-empt; the United States in order to destroy North Korean communications and installation before the missiles can leave the ground, and the North Koreans in order to avoid such a fate,” Farley writes in the article.
法利在文中寫道：「北韓和美國有充分的動機先發制人，美國方面會希望在北韓動用核武之前，完全摧毀對方的通訊和軍事設施，而北韓方面會希望可以避免這樣的命運。」
substantial(adj.)大的;可觀的;重大的incentive(n.)激勵、鼓勵、誘因pre-empt(n.)搶在…之前說話(或行動)先發制人installation(n.)(尤指軍事)設施
As for Taiwan, Farley indicates that some Beijing officials believe that the military balance has tipped in its favor.
至於台灣，法利指出有些北京官員認為中國目前在軍事上較有優勢。
tip the balance or scales 打破平衡局面
Though Farley says that such a perception of military superiority is likely premature, it makes the situation more volatile.
雖然法利説這樣的看法還言之過早，但這將使得情勢有更大的變動。
perception(n.)見解;觀念;看法superiority(n.)優勢;優越premature(adj.)不成熟的;過早的volatile(adj.)不穩定的、易變動的
Farley also pointed out that China has also stepped up military activities around Taiwan, although the PRC has been flexing its muscles in almost every neighboring region.
法利也指出，中國也擴大了在台灣周遭的軍事活動，雖然中國早已在幾乎每個鄰近地區展示軍事實力。
step up加速、加緊腳步flex your muscle(透過軍事、政治或經濟實力向對手)展示實力，顯示力量
The United States has “responded with equanimity”, condemning Chinese actions and approving a US$1.42 billion arms sale to Taiwan on the one hand, while on the other hand offering concessions to Beijing in a bid to gain tougher sanctions against North Korea.
美國方面則是「冷靜回應」，一方面譴責中國的行動，並販售14.2億美元的武器給台灣，另一方面則為了對北韓實施更嚴厲的制裁而向北京讓步。
equanimity(n.)冷靜、沈著condemn(v.)譴責=denounceconcession(n.)認可、讓步、妥協
“For a relationship that demands predictability and careful diplomacy, important players in China and the United States seem eager to embrace uncertainty, which could lead to devastating conflict,” Farley says.
法利說：「對於需要穩定和謹慎外交維持的關係而言，中國和美國的重要決策者似乎渴望接受不確定性，這可能將導致毀滅性的衝突。」
predictability(n.)可預見性devastating(adj.)毀滅性的、破壞力極大的=destructive