《大賣空》麥可貝瑞的預測
Although there are mixed projections from various sources, prominent voices are predicting the high probability of a recession in the US economy this year.
雖然各界的預測不盡相同，主流意見都預測美國經濟今年呈現衰退的機率很高。
probability (n.)可能性
Among them, the one speaking with the most certainty is famed investor Michael Burry, who is known for his prediction of “the collapse of the US housing bubble before the 2008 financial crisis.”
其中，對預測最為肯定的就是知名投資人麥可貝瑞，他因為「在2008年金融危機前預言美國房市泡沫破滅而著稱。」
famed (adj.)知名的be known for 以……聞名crisis (n.)危機（複數crises）
In a recent social media post, Burry predicts that a recession “by any definition” will occur in 2023.
貝瑞在近期的一篇社群媒體貼文中預測，「任何定義下」的經濟衰退都將在2023年發生。
occur (v.)發生
He notes that even though inflation has peaked in the US, it is not the last peak of the business cycle.
他提到即使美國通貨膨脹已觸頂，但不會是本波景氣循環的最後一次。
inflation (n.)通貨膨脹inflate (v.)使充氣、使膨脹rising inflation 持續上升的通膨inflation rate 通膨率deflation (n.)通貨緊縮peak (n.) 高峰、最高點 (v.)達到頂峰、達到最大值
Additionally, he predicts that a lower consumer price index (CPI)—potentially negative in the second half of the year—will be met by Federal Reserve cuts and government stimulation, resulting in “another inflation spike.”
此外，他預測消費者物價指數（CPI）將下滑──可能於下半年轉負──聯準會將因而降息，政府會刺激經濟，導致「另一波通膨飆升」。
index (n.)指數quality of life index 生活品質指數Dow Jones Index 道瓊指數Nikkei Index 日經指數be met by(with) 引起……反應spike (n.)(v.)飆升=surge
Others are lending support to Burry’s view of an impending recession.
其他人也支持貝瑞認為經濟衰退即將來臨的看法。
lend support to sth. 同意、支持某事impending (adj.)即將來臨的、逼近的
In October, a Wall Street Journal study found that surveyed economists believe there is a 63% probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months.
10月份，華爾街日報調查發現受訪經濟學家認為在接下來的12個月中，發生經濟衰退的機率為63％。
survey (v.)調查
Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen is also supporting these odds.
美國銀行首席經濟學家麥可加彭也同意這些機率。
odds (n.)機率odd (adj.)古怪的、奇數的
Although he believes the Federal Reserve could potentially reduce inflation without causing a “severe recession,” Gapen has noted that “2023 could be a difficult year for the US.”
雖然他認為聯準會應該可以在不造成「嚴重經濟衰退」的情況下降低通膨，加彭說「2023年對美國來說將是很艱難的一年」。
severe (adj.)非常嚴重的a severe(deep) recession 嚴重的經濟衰退
However, The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has not yet declared a recession, which it defines as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
然而，美國全國經濟研究所（NBER）還尚未宣布陷入經濟衰退，其對經濟衰退的定義為「經濟活動顯著下降，蔓延至整個經濟體，並持續數月以上」。
declare (v.)宣布declare independence 宣布獨立declare a state of emergency 宣布進入緊急狀態last (v.)持續
In contrast to the certainty expressed by others, the NBER appears to be erring on the side of caution before making its official designation of a recession based on the current economic indicators.
與其他人堅信經濟衰退即將到來的看法相比，NBER在根據目前經濟指標正式宣布經濟衰退前，態度似乎較為謹慎。
in contrast to 與……相較之下、與……對照之下err on the side of caution 寧可過度謹慎