市場需學自力更生
There will be a “baby bear” market in bonds in 2020, with a moderate increase in yields due to a better economy, subdued global inflation and a lack of central bank policy easing, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.
高盛策略師指出，2020年債券市場將出現「小熊市」，殖利率會溫和上升，因為經濟好轉，全球通膨受到控制，以及央行寬鬆政策不足。
interest rates 利率、債券利率、殖利率subdued global inflation 全球通膨受到控制subdued(adj.)受到壓抑的inflation(n.)通貨膨脹lack of 短缺，匱乏
“So although we are cautiously optimistic on the global economy, we forecast only moderately higher 10-year Treasury yields next year, targeting a rebound to 2.25%, mostly skewed toward the second half of 2020,” they wrote in a report.
他們在報告中寫道：「因此，儘管我們對全球經濟審慎樂觀，但預測明年美國10 年期公債殖利率只會溫和走高，目標是反彈至 2.25％，很可能是在 2020 年下半年出現。」
cautiously optimistic 審慎樂觀cautiously(adv.)小心謹慎optimistic(adj.)樂觀的moderately(adv.)適度地;溫和地skew(v.)使偏斜;偏離
The strategists said the yield increase is essentially a “baby bear” market in bonds. “With the Fed on hold and inflation unlikely to take off, we would discourage positioning for a major bear market in US rates next year, even with somewhat better growth,” they wrote.
策略師表示，殖利率若升高基本上是債市的「小熊市」。他們寫道：「聯準會暫停降息，通膨不太可能大幅上揚，即使是經濟成長有點好轉，我們不鼓勵為明年美國利率出現大熊市佈局。」
essentially(adv.)本質上;根本上;基本上on hold 暫緩，擱置put it on hold 暫緩某件事discourage 不鼓勵，勸阻discourage sb. from doing sth.使某人打消做某事的念頭position(v.)佈局
In their outlook for 2020, the firm’s strategists do not expect a “go-go global growth environment that would sink the US dollar or result in a major bear market for bonds.” Goldman sees room for cyclical stocks in the US and emerging markets to continue gaining momentum.
在2020年展望報告中，高盛策略師預期不會出現全球經濟快速成長的環境，致使美元走貶，或導致債市出現重大空頭走勢。高盛預計美國和新興市場的景氣循環股有繼續上漲的空間。
go-go(adj.)經濟快速成長的sink(v.)使…下沈;使貶值cyclical stocks 景氣循環股gain momentum累積(上漲的)動能
“We expect moderately better economic and earnings growth and, therefore, decent risky asset returns,” the research note said. “But we also see plenty of risks, and more challenging valuations, so the upside is limited.”
研究報告指出：「我們預期經濟和企業獲利的成長會略為好一點，因此風險資產的報酬率會不錯，但是我們也看到相當多的風險，估值的挑戰更大，因此上漲空間有限。」
decent(adj.)相當不錯的、正派的risky asset returns風險資產報酬率upside(n.)優點、好處、有利的一面
They said a major difference between 2019 and 2020 will be that the Fed and other major central banks should keep monetary policy unchanged, and so “markets will need to learn to fly on their own.”
他們表示，2019年和2020年重要的不同在於聯準會和其他主要央行應該會維持貨幣政策不變，「市場需要學會自力更生」。
fly on their own自力更生
In the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2019, and the strategists estimated that central bank easing lifted US equities by about 20%.
美國聯準會2019年降息三次，策略師估計美國央行政策寬鬆帶動美股上漲20％左右。
equity=stock 股票